Official September 2026 estimates of oil and product supplies, demand and inventories affected by the US–Iran war and disrupted shipping.
The IEA now expects world oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026, a decline 940,000 barrels a day deeper than its August forecast. It says losses are concentrated in middle distillates and petrochemical feedstocks, especially in Asia; this is a demand forecast, not a count of fuel sold at pumps.
The IEA estimates that observed global oil inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August, but the components moved in different directions: oil on water and non-OECD stocks declined while OECD stocks rose. The distinction matters because a higher OECD total did not reverse the worldwide draw or prove that fuel was available where shortages were most acute.
EIA forecasts U.S. distillate stocks below 100 million barrels in September and below their five-year low through 2026, even as exports respond to a global diesel squeeze. IEA figures show sharply reduced Gulf product shipments. The outlook for easing diesel margins assumes restored Hormuz traffic; these forecasts do not establish today's pump price or a certain date for relief.
EPA's September waiver eases federal enforcement of selected state gasoline rules, with separate expiry dates and conditions. It does not establish how much fuel has arrived or how pump prices changed.
The September OPEC+ table uses distinct capacity measures and an explicit exclusion, limiting what its headline totals can tell readers about supply recovery.
EIA's September outlook links a gradual oil recovery to easing export constraints. Its regional forecast does not promise simultaneous recovery for every producer or establish that the war has ended.
