EIA's oil recovery forecast depends on export constraints easing
EIA's September outlook links a gradual oil recovery to easing export constraints. Its regional forecast does not promise simultaneous recovery for every producer or establish that the war has ended.
The US Energy Information Administration's September outlook makes recovery in Middle Eastern oil output conditional on exports gradually improving. It assumes some constraints persist through year-end, keeping regional crude production below pre-conflict averages until the second quarter of 2027.
The agency forecasts Brent spot prices near $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026 and an average of $74 in 2027. These are scenario-based projections, not current quotations or confirmation that the US–Iran war has ended.
EIA finalized its inputs on 3 September and published the outlook on 9 September. Later diplomatic developments are not specifically incorporated. Its market discussion also warns that some Gulf producers may not regain pre-conflict output during the forecast period.
For readers tracking negotiations, a projected regional recovery therefore does not mean every producer recovers together. New announcements require a fresh assessment of the assumptions behind the numbers.
프리즘코리아 편집국 > 서유진 · Yujin Seo
