IEA's spare-capacity figure is not simply capacity minus oil output
The September OPEC+ table uses distinct capacity measures and an explicit exclusion, limiting what its headline totals can tell readers about supply recovery.
The IEA's September oil table separates oil production capacity from supply that can respond to disruption. It lists total OPEC+ output at 33.11 million barrels a day in August and sustainable capacity at 43.93 million, but effective spare capacity at 0.22 million.
Subtracting output from sustainable capacity yields a larger number. That arithmetic is not the agency's effective spare-capacity estimate. The table defines sustainable capacity as levels reachable within 90 days and maintainable for an extended period; it is not a promise of immediate deliveries.
A separate footnote says the effective spare-capacity measure excludes shut-in Iranian and Russian crude. That exclusion matters when reading the figure during the Iran war: it is a defined category, not every barrel that might theoretically return.
For readers comparing supply buffers, the oil table's labels and footnotes are essential. None of these capacity figures guarantees a cargo's arrival or a date for restored exports.
프리즘코리아 편집국 > 서유진 · Yujin Seo
